Geopolitics of agricultural commodities put to the test by global crises

3 episodes

Épisode 1/3

Wheat: a strategic commodity back on the global stage

On February 17th, 2026

5 min reading time

Jérémy Denieulle

Doctor of Geopolitics and Director of Studies at the Agriculture Stratégies Think Tank

Today, wheat is the most exported cereal in the world, with 242 million tons traded globally, compared to 68 million for rice.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the war against Ukraine have caused wheat prices to skyrocket, affecting food security in sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa.
Wheat represents 69% of cereals for human consumption in Morocco and 96% in Tunisia.
North Africa and the Middle East are the regions most dependent on imported wheat in the world.
In 2025, ten countries accounted for 80% of global wheat exports, including Russia, Australia, the United States, Canada, Ukraine, and France.

Épisode 2/3

On February 24th, 2026

3 min reading time

Olivier Antoine

Doctor of Geopolitics and Director of ORAE Geopolitics

Between the years 2000 and 2025, annual soybean harvests doubled, rising from 175 to 420 million tons.
In the early 2000s, domestic demand for meat exploded in China, which had become an industrial powerhouse: it imported soybeans to feed its livestock.
The main soybean producers today are the US, Brazil, and Argentina, which supply about three-quarters of global production.
China’s leading soybean supplier is the United States, which is also its main geopolitical and geoeconomic adversary.
Today, the largest soybean storage and processing facility in South America, located in Brazil, is owned by a Chinese corporation.

Épisode 3/3

On March 11th, 2026

3 min reading time

Thierry Pouch

Doctor of Economics and Chief Economist at Chambers of Agriculture France

In 2021, rice production reached 500 million tonnes, and the estimated figure for 2026 is around 542 million tonnes.
Asia and Africa are the two largest importing regions in the world, accounting for nearly 80% of global flows, while the EU represents only a marginal share of global imports.
International trade in rice is not as high as for wheat, as the cereal is mainly consumed within the producing country.
India is the world leader, with 14.4 million tonnes shipped in 2024, representing a quarter of total global exports.
The International Grains Council's 2026 projections indicate that Indian exports could return to their previous level, with 22 to 23 million tonnes.