Since coming to power in 2013, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has been re-elected three times as Egypt’s leader and, barring any surprises, is expected to remain in office until 2029. What can we learn from this decade in power ?
Sarah Ben Nefissa. President al-Sisi has created a highly intense form of political authoritarianism, much more security-focused than that of his predecessor, Hosni Mubarak (President of the Arab Republic of Egypt from 1981 to 2011), who was overthrown after the 2011 uprisings. Under al-Sisi, the democratic gains achieved by the people have been largely erased. Today, the political regime is based on the central role of the presidency, the marginalisation of the government and parliament, and, above all, the growing involvement of the army in political and economic life, which has been established as the guardian of the Constitution and democracy.
According to al-Sisi’s vision, it was the laxity and permissiveness of the Mubarak regime that was responsible for the 2011 revolution and, by extension, for the political and economic turmoil that followed. Based on this reading of history, a series of restrictive measures led to the establishment of state capitalism1, dominated by the military apparatus.
Unchecked power ?
All political parties, with the Muslim Brotherhood at the forefront, have been weakened. Contrary to expectations, the President has not filled this political vacuum by creating a party structured around himself, as is customary under authoritarian regimes. Only loyalist political groups, created in 2013 by the security agencies, exist and regularly manipulate the selection of candidates standing for election. As for Parliament, it cannot act as a counterweight to the executive, as its members are reduced to rubber-stamping presidential decrees and draft laws without distinction.
This control extends beyond the political sphere. The regime fears the symbolic Tahrir Square being taken over by a new popular uprising. Every measure is being taken to ward off this spectre : associations are strictly controlled, NGOs are prevented from operating, demonstrations are not authorised, and repression is the state’s almost automatic response. The media landscape, which had undergone liberalisation under the impact of the privatisation of the sector since 2005, is seeing a major return to state control.
Finally, on the judicial front, a major constitutional reform in 2019 reduced the independence of the judiciary, judges and magistrates, giving the president control over judicial bodies. In total, more than 1,000 prisons are said to have been built since the beginning of his terms in office.
How can we gauge the support of the Egyptian people ?
Whether it be presidential or parliamentary elections, it is impossible to rely on official election results to understand the level of support for the government in power. The entire process is controlled in advance : it is almost impossible for an independent candidate to stand for election. The last elections that offered any semblance of transparency were in 2014. Ten years later, the candidates are chosen by al-Sisi. The last independent candidate in the 2023 presidential elections, Ahmed Tantawi, a former member of parliament, was unable to stand and was sentenced to one year in prison for irregularities identified by the security services.
The President is said to have taken a neoliberal turn, changing the economic and social balance that had been in place until now. What are the signs of this ?
Economically, the al-Sisi decade has had a profound impact on society. The new architecture that has been erected has called into question the “authoritarian social pact” that has historically been in force in many political regimes in the region. The tacit agreement is based on the exchange of freedom for food, social and physical security. Far from this pact, the President has built a state capitalism, using tools such as neoliberal austerity policies and the pricing of public goods and services, while promoting the concentration of wealth. The primary objective was to create a new dominant social and economic class that would depend on him and be structured around the army.
Grand projects, but controversial effects ?
Al-Sisi is also known for his dreams of grandeur, all accompanied by superlatives. He envisions pharaonic works to expand the Suez Canal, build a new capital on the outskirts of Cairo, a majestic opera house, the largest church in Africa, the largest mosque in Egypt, and much more. The reality is not so rosy. These megaprojects are a total failure, having been carried out with a great deal of opacity by military companies. They are partly responsible for the economic bankruptcy of the state.
Between rapid population growth and the effects of global warming, Egypt faces many agricultural and water-related challenges. How does the state intend to respond ?
The Renaissance Dam planned by Ethiopia on the Blue Nile, upstream from the Egyptian Aswan Dam built under Nasser, has been a source of tension and fear for several years. The main concern is the reduction in the river’s flow and the worsening of droughts.
Apart from this dispute with Addis Ababa, reducing water waste is a key national issue. Several measures have been proposed, such as lining the Nile’s irrigation canals or implementing water rationing systems (alternating between three days with water and three days without). Another measure, which has been strongly criticised, was to limit – or even ban – water-intensive crops such as rice. However, this cereal is the main source of nutrition for millions of farmers in the country2. Several megaprojects have been launched to increase the amount of agricultural land by creating new cultivable areas in the desert, notably the Future of Egypt in the New Delta project3. Here too, the megaprojects proposed are not universally popular.
Under the weight of political repression and the erosion of the socio-economic context, could a significant wave of protest emerge in the coming years ?
The regime is currently very fragile. Social services are minimal, and only the intelligence services listen to the people. Furthermore, there is no ideology capable of winning the widespread support of Egyptians, and the government generally views its population with contempt.
Al-Sissi has been able to restore his image to some extent recently with his positions on regional issues. He opposed Donald Trump’s position when the latter wanted to relocate Gazans to the Sinai. But recently, people have begun to speak out more freely, as evidenced by the social movements of inner-city residents against rent liberalisation in May 2025. Movements to protect lawyers, strikes by private sector workers and the election of an independent candidate to head the journalists’ union can be seen as signs. These are faint signals that need to be monitored.
