AI : the rise of India and the Gulf States
- State actors such as the United Arab Emirates, India and Saudi Arabia are playing an increasingly important role in the race for artificial intelligence (AI).
- The United Arab Emirates has quickly risen to 5th place in international AI rankings, but still lacks sovereign infrastructure.
- Saudi Arabia is laying the foundations for its strategy by refocusing its objectives on the national territory, with the aim of developing a local hub and attracting talent.
- India is training a large number of AI researchers, and its various states are being called upon to contribute to the development of national policies through coordination mechanisms.
- Looking at the rankings of the countries most advanced in developing their AI capabilities, nearly half of the top 10 are emerging countries.
To officially join the AI race, several countries announced their ambitions by publishing their first national strategies around 2018. These roadmaps, which vary in their comprehensiveness and sectoral focus, tend to be similar, even though these emerging players have unique resources and economic structures. The strategies are likely to be refined gradually, as new publications emerge and national contexts evolve.
United Arab Emirates. A strategy for AI or new forms of dependency ?
Jean-François Gagné. A new player on the scene in the late 2010s, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has quickly risen to 5th place in international rankings (2023 Global AI Vibrancy Ranking). Two main factors explain this progress : public investment in research and development, and the country’s ability to attract international talent. To implement their programme, a ministry dedicated solely to AI was created in 2017 – one of the first in the world – headed by Omar Sultan Al Olama, who is listed among the 100 most influential people in the sector by TIME Magazine. More recently, Abu Dhabi made headlines by announcing that laws would now be written using AI. Beyond the hype and uncertainty, the project reflects a certain national ambition.
Furthermore, for a country whose economy remains heavily dependent on oil revenues, investing in AI is part of a diversification process. Will the gamble pay off ? Huge sums are being poured into high-risk projects, but there are still many unknowns about the expected results. Despite its ambitions, the Gulf state lacks the infrastructure resources and remains dependent on outside help at all levels to develop its capabilities. It should be remembered that, with the exception of the Chinese and US giants, very few countries are capable of being independent in the field of AI, as none of them have the full range of resources required. With this in mind, China has redoubled its efforts to establish a foothold through large companies based in Abu Dhabi. However, the political and economic elites are seeking to maintain dialogue with all players, including the United States. As such, the Emirati fund MGX, which is close to the government, has contributed financially to the colossal Stargate project announced by Donald Trump in January 2025.
Saudi Arabia. With ambitions to become a leader in AI by 2030, Saudi Arabia has also published its National Strategy for Data and AI. How does it differ from its Emirati neighbour ?
When it entered the race in the late 2010s, the Saudi monarchy attracted global attention by granting citizenship to a humanoid robot named Sophia for the first time. Once the media hype had died down, in 2020 Riyadh laid the groundwork for its strategy by setting its objectives within the country, unlike the UAE, which is relying heavily on foreign direct investment. Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to internalise the various economic levers linked to AI by developing a hub within the country, while attracting investment and human resources. In the long term, this vision could prove fruitful.
In terms of partnerships, while Saudi Arabia remains closely linked to the United States, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s latest visit in May 2025, which concluded with the announcement of technology contracts, it remains open to dialogue with China. That said, with five years to go before the deadline set by Vision 2030, the kingdom is still far from being a leader in the sector. According to various international rankings, it is around 25th place, on a par with Malaysia and Australia.
India. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi intends to lead the “artificial intelligence revolution”. What is the reality ?
India is now a major player in the field of AI and stands out from the two Gulf states mentioned above thanks to its local research and development capabilities and its considerable pool of skilled talent. Thanks to its large population and education system, the country trains many leading researchers who contribute to the latest advances in this constantly evolving technology. All this is underpinned by its technological diaspora, which is well integrated into the major American technology companies that have set up research and development centres in the country.
One of the distinctive features of its strategy is its bottom-up approach. In other words, the various Indian states are called upon to contribute to policy-making at the national level through various coordination mechanisms (notably NITI Aayog). Far from the hyper-decentralised American model, or conversely, the Chinese model where everything is decided by the leadership, New Delhi is relying to a certain extent on a construction strategy. Emphasis is also placed on respecting and preserving the cultural and linguistic diversity of India’s different regions in the research and development of AI systems. However, India also faces many challenges, with technological infrastructure at the top of the agenda, particularly supercomputers and data centres.
Moving towards a broader range of players ?
In this more discreet but promising group, Singapore stands out with its solid infrastructure, coherent strategy and leading position in research and development, particularly in the area of smart cities. In addition, the country favours open access models, unlike the United States, which opts more for proprietary models.
More generally, if we look at the rankings of the most advanced countries in terms of capacity development, a notable trend emerges : nearly half of the top 10 are emerging countries (2023 Global AI Vibrancy Ranking). In a competition involving sophisticated technologies, this trend may reflect a new form of democratisation of AI. This category of players is likely to play an increasingly decisive role, and their rise raises questions about future changes in the international AI landscape.
Finally, states are not the only players in the game. Major forces are exerted by American companies, which have acquired stock market values equivalent to some of the G7 countries’ GDP. For example, Amazon invests as much as France in R&D. These giants have become indispensable players in all international forums and benefit from a sprawling structure, whereas China’s structure remains limited in its international deployment.
