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Our world, tomorrow by Viviane Lalande / Scilabus

Are electric cars a truly sustainable solution ?

with Aurélien Bigo, Research Associate of the Energy and Prosperity Chair at Institut Louis Bachelier
On June 1st, 2022 |
6 min reading time
Aurélien Bigo
Aurélien Bigo
Research Associate of the Energy and Prosperity Chair at Institut Louis Bachelier
Key takeaways
  • Electric car sales increased significantly in 2020, accounting for 10% of sales over 2021. But they still only represent just over 1% of the current French car fleet.
  • In France, the target for the end of sales of combustion cars is currently set for 2040, while the EU should bring this target forward to 2035.
  • In France, the electric car allows greenhouse gas emissions to be divided by 3 in comparison with a combustion car.
  • Unlike combustion vehicles, electric vehicle emissions are zero when in use, and are instead concentrated on the production of the vehicle and the energy used to produce the electricity.
  • Moreover, the problems of congestion, accidents and noise pollution are also still present.

The car is the most wide­ly used mode of trans­port in France, accoun­ting for around two-thirds of all mobi­li­ty1, in terms of the num­ber of jour­neys, trans­port time and kilo­metres tra­vel­led. It is also a major source of green­house gas emis­sions, accoun­ting for just over half of domes­tic trans­port emis­sions (exclu­ding inter­na­tio­nal trans­port), or 16% of emis­sions in France2. The auto­mo­bile is the­re­fore a key sec­tor in the fight against glo­bal warming.

The elec­tric car is seen as a solu­tion for redu­cing the envi­ron­men­tal impact of trans­port, being sup­por­ted by public autho­ri­ties, deve­lo­ped by manu­fac­tu­rers, and increa­sin­gly adop­ted by users.

Even if elec­tric car sales have increa­sed signi­fi­cant­ly since 2020, repre­sen­ting 10% of sales3 in 2021, they only represent a lit­tle over 1% of the num­ber of cars cur­rent­ly on French roads. Never­the­less, poli­ti­cal deci­sions sup­port this growth, which is expec­ted to conti­nue. In France, the tar­get date for the end of sales of com­bus­tion engine cars is cur­rent­ly 2040, while the EU is expec­ted to bring this tar­get for­ward to 20354.

To judge whe­ther this elec­tri­fi­ca­tion is good news and leads us towards sus­tai­nable mobi­li­ty, we need to look at its advan­tages and disad­van­tages on seve­ral envi­ron­men­tal, social, and eco­no­mic impacts of mobility.

Electrification is essential for climate objectives

Unlike inter­nal com­bus­tion vehicles, the emis­sions from elec­tric vehicles are zero when in use and are ins­tead concen­tra­ted on the pro­duc­tion of the vehicle and the power sup­ply. The pro­duc­tion of an elec­tric car bat­te­ry requires mine­ral resources. The extrac­tion of which has an unde­niable envi­ron­men­tal impact, and their refi­ning, like the pro­duc­tion of bat­te­ries, also consumes ener­gy. In the pro­duc­tion phase of the vehicle, elec­tric cars emit more green­house gases (in addi­tion to other envi­ron­men­tal impacts) than com­bus­tion cars, because of the addi­tion of the battery.

It is in the use of the vehicle that the cli­mate impact will be off­set, espe­cial­ly for coun­tries with a high­ly decar­bo­ni­sed elec­tri­ci­ty mix. In France, which is one of the coun­tries with the best record in this res­pect, the elec­tric car can alrea­dy reduce green­house gas emis­sions by a fac­tor of 3 com­pa­red with a com­bus­tion engine car (depen­ding on the stu­dies, the star­ting hypo­theses and the type of vehicle stu­died, emis­sions are redu­ced by a fac­tor of 2 to 5).

Car­bon balance in life cycle ana­ly­sis in tCO2e of ther­mal, plug-in hybrid and elec­tric sedans in France, in 2016 and 2030 (FNH 20175). V2G : vehicle-to-grid is a tech­no­lo­gy that allows the redis­tri­bu­tion of ener­gy sto­red in the bat­te­ry to the elec­tro­nic grid6.

While other alter­na­tive to fos­sil fuels (hydro­gen, bio­gas, agro­fuels, or syn­the­tic fuels) are not as sui­table for light vehicles, elec­tric power is a pre­fer­red and even essen­tial solu­tion for achie­ving our cli­mate objec­tives in trans­port. The IPCC report7 states in its sum­ma­ry for poli­cy makers that “elec­tric vehicles powe­red by low-car­bon elec­tri­ci­ty offer the grea­test poten­tial for decar­bo­ni­sa­tion of land trans­port in life cycle ana­ly­sis”8. Howe­ver, even a fac­tor of 3 on emis­sions is not enough and would need to be impro­ved by moving to much more fuel-effi­cient vehicles, as we shall see.

Putting air pollution gains into perspective

In addi­tion to cli­mate change, ano­ther impor­tant issue is air pol­lu­tion, which affects health. The conse­quences for public health in France9 are main­ly due to emis­sions of fine par­ticles (PM), fol­lo­wed by nitro­gen oxides (NOx) and ozone (O3). Depen­ding on the pol­lu­tant, the trans­port sec­tor has a more or less signi­fi­cant impact10 : more than 60% for NOx and 17.5% for PM2.5 (par­ticles with a dia­me­ter of less than 2.5 µm), although these pro­por­tions increase in the most den­se­ly popu­la­ted areas, par­ti­cu­lar­ly along road­sides, where road trans­port accounts for more than half of the par­ticles11, where popu­la­tion expo­sure can be significant.

Until now, tail­pipe emis­sions have been the main source of air pol­lu­tion from road trans­port. Signi­fi­cant pro­gress has alrea­dy been made on these issues for new vehicles, and elec­tric vehicles will com­ple­te­ly solve this pro­blem for both fine par­ticles and NOx.

On the other hand, as a result of the pro­gress made on fine par­ticles from exhaust, the share of non-exhaust par­ticles is beco­ming increa­sin­gly signi­fi­cant, repre­sen­ting 59% of PM10 and 45% of PM2.5 emis­sions12 in 2019 in France. These emis­sions cor­res­pond to the abra­sion of brakes, tyres, and the road sur­face, as well as the resus­pen­sion of fine par­ticles alrea­dy present on the roads. Elec­tric vehicles reduce emis­sions of par­ticles from brakes through rege­ne­ra­tive bra­king, but emis­sions are higher for par­ticles from tyres and pave­ment because of their grea­ter weight. Ove­rall, emis­sions are somew­hat lower for elec­tric vehicles, espe­cial­ly given that the dri­ving range, and the­re­fore the weight, of the vehicle is limited.

Fine par­ticle emis­sions from ther­mal and elec­tric cars (ADEME 202213)

Many impacts are too often forgotten

In terms of both green­house gas emis­sions and atmos­phe­ric pol­lu­tants, the elec­tric car the­re­fore appears to be a bet­ter choice than the inter­nal com­bus­tion engine. But the amounts are still insuf­fi­cient and should not over­sha­dow the fact that emis­sion levels are still high, par­ti­cu­lar­ly when com­pa­red with other modes of trans­port or forms of mobi­li­ty that are more eco­no­mi­cal and more envi­ron­men­tal­ly friend­ly. This is also the case for other impacts or exter­na­li­ties of trans­port, where the elec­tric car does not solve the pro­blems identified.

As with air pol­lu­tion, noise pol­lu­tion, an impor­tant fac­tor in the qua­li­ty of life, is redu­ced by elec­tric vehicles without disap­pea­ring enti­re­ly. In fact, the noise of com­bus­tion engine vehicles comes not only from the engine, but also from tyre fric­tion and aero­dy­na­mic noise, which is even more impor­tant at higher speeds, and these types of noises will not be signi­fi­cant­ly alte­red by elec­tric cars.

Other car-rela­ted issues remain unchan­ged with the switch to elec­tric cars. These include the space taken up by cars, which is often sum­ma­ri­sed as conges­tion, but which also concerns par­king space (on roads, in buil­dings and car parks) and, more broad­ly, trans­port infra­struc­ture, lea­ding to soil arti­fi­cia­li­sa­tion and impacts on bio­di­ver­si­ty. The pro­blems of acci­den­to­lo­gy also remain unchan­ged with the switch to elec­tric vehicles. The car is also an inac­tive mode, and phy­si­cal inac­ti­vi­ty and seden­ta­ri­ness are a major public health issue, although too often for­got­ten since they concern no less than 95% of the popu­la­tion14.

The pro­blem of une­qual access to mobi­li­ty, for social or geo­gra­phi­cal rea­sons, can be rein­for­ced or redu­ced by swit­ching to elec­tric vehicles, depen­ding on the cir­cum­stances. With a higher pur­chase price, at least for the time being, the dis­tri­bu­tion of the car to the most finan­cial­ly fra­gile popu­la­tions is com­pli­ca­ted, but the costs of use are then much lower, for an ove­rall cost of owner­ship that remains high in com­pa­ri­son with the use of public trans­port, car sha­ring or even more active mobi­li­ty, even if the lack of moto­ri­sa­tion can some­times require the use of car sharing.

Final­ly, regar­ding the consump­tion of resources, and in par­ti­cu­lar cer­tain metals (lithium, cobalt, nickel, cop­per, etc.), the elec­tric vehicle may lead to new ten­sions com­pa­red to the inter­nal com­bus­tion engine car, in terms of sup­ply dif­fi­cul­ties and price vola­ti­li­ty, the limi­ta­tion of cer­tain resources or pol­lu­tion lin­ked to their exploitation.

Rethinking vehicles and mobility

Respon­ding to these dif­ferent issues toge­ther will the­re­fore require going beyond a simple switch to elec­tric cars – assu­ming it is pos­sible to do so without major constraints, espe­cial­ly as the world’s car fleet is expec­ted to grow in the coming decades.

The first step is to review the size of the cars or, more broad­ly, the vehicles used, which are not adap­ted today to eve­ry­day use, i.e., to the vast majo­ri­ty of uses. A car gene­ral­ly has five seats, can go up to 180 km/h, and weighs around 1.3 tonnes, whe­reas the most frequent uses are for one per­son, on roads limi­ted to 80 or 90 km/h maxi­mum (more rare­ly up to 130 km/h), for dis­tances of a few kilo­metres to a few dozen kilometres.

Here again, the risk is that the race for grea­ter dri­ving range for elec­tric vehicles will conti­nue, when dri­ving ranges of seve­ral hun­dred kilo­metres are only use­ful for a few rare jour­neys per year, at a finan­cial cost to the buyer and with very signi­fi­cant envi­ron­men­tal impacts. In the future, the­re­fore, we need to deve­lop much more fuel-effi­cient vehicles, i.e., smal­ler, ligh­ter, less power­ful, and less fast, more aero­dy­na­mic, with a limi­ted dri­ving range… which is the oppo­site of cur­rent trends, mar­ked by hea­vy elec­tric vehicles (such as SUVs) that do not meet any of the vir­tuous cri­te­ria men­tio­ned above.

More broad­ly, the aim is to deve­lop inter­me­diate vehicles bet­ween the bicycle and the car, ran­ging from elec­tri­cal­ly assis­ted bicycles (EABs) to mini-cars (such as the Renault Twi­zy or Citroën Ami), as well as fol­ding bicycles, car­go bikes, speed-pede­lecs (elec­tric bicycles which can achieve speeds of up to 45km/h) and velo­mo­biles (recumbent bicycles with a fai­ring). These vehicles extend the pos­si­bi­li­ties of the tra­di­tio­nal bicycle to replace the car, while making elec­tric mobi­li­ty much more acces­sible and much less impact­ful in terms of green­house gas emis­sions, pol­lu­tants, and consump­tion of resources and space.

Inter­me­diate vehicles, adap­ted from15.

More gene­ral­ly, we also need to review the place and uses of the car in mobi­li­ty, by acting on the five levers of decar­bo­ni­sa­tion of mobi­li­ty, cited by the natio­nal low-car­bon stra­te­gy16, name­ly mode­ra­tion of trans­port demand, by get­ting clo­ser to people on a dai­ly basis and redu­cing the lon­gest jour­neys ; modal shift, by favou­ring wal­king, cycling, trains, buses and coaches as much as pos­sible (and in this order), well ahead of cars and planes, whose use must be redu­ced ; by impro­ving vehicle occu­pan­cy, in par­ti­cu­lar through car­poo­ling ; ener­gy effi­cien­cy, which also concerns the reduc­tion of speed on the roads, in addi­tion to the levers of more envi­ron­men­tal­ly friend­ly and elec­tric vehicles alrea­dy men­tio­ned ; and final­ly the decar­bo­ni­sa­tion of ener­gy, in par­ti­cu­lar through elec­tri­fi­ca­tion for the ligh­test vehicles, and also hydro­gen, bio­gas, agro­fuels, or syn­the­tic fuels as a com­ple­ment or for the other modes that are more dif­fi­cult to electrify

If tech­no­lo­gy, and in par­ti­cu­lar this last lever, are major and indis­pen­sable, they must be pla­ced in their right­ful place in the tran­si­tion, as the last levers of decar­bo­ni­sa­tion, after the pre­vious levers which bet­ter enable the impacts of mobi­li­ty to be tack­led at the root and thus respond posi­ti­ve­ly to more sus­tai­na­bi­li­ty issues. As far as the car is concer­ned, the elec­tric car must be encou­ra­ged, because it is the best alter­na­tive to get rid of oil, but it can­not be seen as a miracle cure… because it is not.

1http://​www​.chair​-ener​gy​-pros​pe​ri​ty​.org/​p​u​b​l​i​c​a​t​i​o​n​s​/​t​r​a​v​a​i​l​-​d​e​-​t​h​e​s​e​-​d​e​c​a​r​b​o​n​e​r​-​t​r​a​n​s​p​o​r​t​s​-​d​i​c​i​-​2050/
2https://​www​.cite​pa​.org/​f​r​/​s​e​cten/
3https://​ccfa​.fr/​d​o​s​s​i​e​r​s​-​d​e​-​p​r​esse/
4https://www.actu-environnement.com/ae/news/industrie-automobile-phase-objectif-europeen-vehicules-zero-emission-2035–39657.php4
5https://​www​.fnh​.org/​q​u​e​l​l​e​-​c​o​n​t​r​i​b​u​t​i​o​n​-​d​u​-​v​e​h​i​c​u​l​e​-​e​l​e​c​t​r​i​q​u​e​-​a​-​l​a​-​t​r​a​n​s​i​t​i​o​n​-​e​n​e​r​g​e​t​ique/
6https://​www​.vir​ta​.glo​bal/​f​r​/​v​e​h​i​c​l​e​-​t​o​-​g​r​i​d-v2g
7https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group‑3/
8« Elec­tric vehicles powe­red by low emis­sions elec­tri­ci­ty offer the lar­gest decar­bo­ni­sa­tion poten­tial for land-based trans­port, on a life cycle basis (high confi­dence). »
9https://​www​.san​te​pu​bli​que​france​.fr/​d​e​t​e​r​m​i​n​a​n​t​s​-​d​e​-​s​a​n​t​e​/​p​o​l​l​u​t​i​o​n​-​e​t​-​s​a​n​t​e​/​a​i​r​/​d​o​c​u​m​e​n​t​s​/​e​n​q​u​e​t​e​s​-​e​t​u​d​e​s​/​i​m​p​a​c​t​-​d​e​-​p​o​l​l​u​t​i​o​n​-​d​e​-​l​-​a​i​r​-​a​m​b​i​a​n​t​-​s​u​r​-​l​a​-​m​o​r​t​a​l​i​t​e​-​e​n​-​f​r​a​n​c​e​-​m​e​t​r​o​p​o​l​i​t​a​i​n​e​.​-​r​e​d​u​c​t​i​o​n​-​e​n​-​l​i​e​n​-​a​v​e​c​-​l​e​-​c​o​n​f​i​n​e​m​e​n​t​-​d​u​-​p​r​i​n​t​e​m​p​s​-​2​0​2​0​-​e​t​-​n​o​u​velle
10https://​www​.cite​pa​.org/​f​r​/​s​e​cten/
11https://​librai​rie​.ademe​.fr/​a​i​r​-​e​t​-​b​r​u​i​t​/​5​3​8​4​-​e​m​i​s​s​i​o​n​s​-​d​e​s​-​v​e​h​i​c​u​l​e​s​-​r​o​u​t​i​e​r​s​-​l​e​s​-​p​a​r​t​i​c​u​l​e​s​-​h​o​r​s​-​e​c​h​a​p​p​e​m​e​n​t​.html
12https://​librai​rie​.ademe​.fr/​a​i​r​-​e​t​-​b​r​u​i​t​/​5​3​8​4​-​e​m​i​s​s​i​o​n​s​-​d​e​s​-​v​e​h​i​c​u​l​e​s​-​r​o​u​t​i​e​r​s​-​l​e​s​-​p​a​r​t​i​c​u​l​e​s​-​h​o​r​s​-​e​c​h​a​p​p​e​m​e​n​t​.html
13https://​librai​rie​.ademe​.fr/​a​i​r​-​e​t​-​b​r​u​i​t​/​5​3​8​4​-​e​m​i​s​s​i​o​n​s​-​d​e​s​-​v​e​h​i​c​u​l​e​s​-​r​o​u​t​i​e​r​s​-​l​e​s​-​p​a​r​t​i​c​u​l​e​s​-​h​o​r​s​-​e​c​h​a​p​p​e​m​e​n​t​.html
14https://www.anses.fr/fr/content/manque‑d%E2%80%99activit%C3%A9-physique-et-exc%C3%A8s-de‑s%C3%A9dentarit%C3%A9-une-priorit%C3%A9-de-sant%C3%A9-publique
15https://​the​con​ver​sa​tion​.com/​m​a​l​u​s​-​p​o​i​d​s​-​e​m​i​s​s​i​o​n​s​-​d​e​-​c​o​-​i​n​t​e​r​e​s​s​o​n​s​-​n​o​u​s​-​e​n​f​i​n​-​a​u​x​-​v​e​h​i​c​u​l​e​s​-​i​n​t​e​r​m​e​d​i​a​i​r​e​s​-​1​48650
16https://​www​.eco​lo​gie​.gouv​.fr/​s​t​r​a​t​e​g​i​e​-​n​a​t​i​o​n​a​l​e​-​b​a​s​-​c​a​r​b​o​n​e​-snbchttps://​www​.eco​lo​gie​.gouv​.fr/​s​t​r​a​t​e​g​i​e​-​n​a​t​i​o​n​a​l​e​-​b​a​s​-​c​a​r​b​o​n​e​-snbc

Contributors

Aurélien Bigo

Aurélien Bigo

Research Associate of the Energy and Prosperity Chair at Institut Louis Bachelier

Aurélien Bigo works on the energy transition in transport. In 2020, he defended his thesis at the Institut Polytechnique de Paris on the subject of "Transport facing the challenge of the energy transition. Explorations between past and future, technology and sobriety, acceleration and slowing down".

His work can be consulted on the following page of the Energy and Prosperity Chair, of which he is a research associate: http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/travail-de-these-decarboner-transports-dici-2050/

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