Space powers: how critical technologies are emerging from public-private partnerships

The space eco­nomy is under­go­ing a fun­da­ment­al trans­form­a­tion. In July 2021, private space flights by Richard Bran­son and Jeff Bezos demon­strated the grow­ing com­mer­cial viab­il­ity of space travel. That same year, Chin­a’s Zhur­ong rover joined NAS­A’s Per­sever­ance on Mars, reflect­ing increased inter­na­tion­al par­ti­cip­a­tion in space explor­a­tion. These devel­op­ments sig­nal a broad­er shift in how gov­ern­ments and private enter­prises approach space, with ana­lysts pro­ject­ing the space eco­nomy could reach $1.8 tril­lion by 2035.

This pro­jec­ted growth encom­passes diverse activ­it­ies ran­ging from satel­lite deploy­ment and nav­ig­a­tion sys­tems to space tour­ism and plan­et­ary explor­a­tion. NAS­A’s planned 2028 Dragon­fly mis­sion, which will send a quad­copter-like rover to Sat­urn’s moon Titan using tech­no­lo­gies demon­strated by Mars’ Ingenu­ity heli­copter, exem­pli­fies how pub­lic agen­cies and private com­pan­ies are increas­ingly col­lab­or­at­ing to advance space cap­ab­il­it­ies. SpaceX’s Fal­con Heavy already hav­ing been booked for the launch.

The leg­al found­a­tion for space activ­it­ies was estab­lished through the UN’s 1967 Out­er Space Treaty, which des­ig­nated space as a com­mons for all man­kind, and the 1979 Moon Agree­ment, which pro­hib­ited resource own­er­ship. How­ever, these frame­works are being rein­ter­preted and sup­ple­men­ted as com­mer­cial space activ­ity expands. The 2020 U.S. Artemis Accords rep­res­ent one such evol­u­tion, cre­at­ing non-bind­ing mul­ti­lat­er­al arrange­ments for space cooper­a­tion. By July 2025, 56 coun­tries had signed these accords. Mean­while, nation­al space pro­grams have pro­lif­er­ated glob­ally, with the European Com­mis­sion’s June 2025 EU Space Act expli­citly tar­get­ing lead­er­ship in the space eco­nomy. These policy ini­ti­at­ives have coin­cided with tech­no­lo­gic­al advances, par­tic­u­larly in AI and robot­ics, that have reduced space flight costs and accel­er­ated innovation.

Com­mer­cial interests have also shaped the reg­u­lat­ory envir­on­ment. The United States legis­lated space resource extrac­tion for its cit­izens in 2015, with Lux­em­bourg, the UAE, and Japan enact­ing sim­il­ar pro­vi­sions. More recently, August 2025 White House exec­ut­ive orders emphas­ised U.S. com­mer­cial space lead­er­ship. This policy dir­ec­tion reflects expect­a­tions that the space eco­nomy will deliv­er satel­lite inter­net, enhanced nav­ig­a­tion, low Earth orbit com­merce, space tour­ism, in-space man­u­fac­tur­ing, aster­oid min­ing, and poten­tial set­tle­ments bey­ond Earth. These oppor­tun­it­ies, how­ever, coex­ist with sig­ni­fic­ant chal­lenges. Space debris in low Earth orbit poses grow­ing risks to satel­lites and mis­sions. While the U.S., Rus­sia, and China are respons­ible for most orbit­al debris, reg­u­lat­ory frame­works remain under­developed. The absence of accep­ted defin­i­tions dis­tin­guish­ing debris from func­tion­al objects com­plic­ates risk assess­ment and invest­ment decisions, cre­at­ing uncer­tainty that could con­strain future growth.

Under­ly­ing the space eco­nomy’s expan­sion is a broad­er com­pet­i­tion for lead­er­ship in Crit­ic­al and Emer­ging Tech­no­lo­gies (CETs). These tech­no­lo­gies, often dual-pur­pose (civilian/economy and defence), include AI, advanced semi­con­duct­ors, quantum com­put­ing, cloud ser­vices, drones, GPS, satel­lites, and advanced man­u­fac­tur­ing and mater­i­als. The ‘crit­ic­al’ aspect refer­ring essen­tially to emer­ging tech­no­lo­gies with the capa­city to gen­er­ate break­throughs in key areas of nation­al interests. CETs are char­ac­ter­ised by their nov­elty, com­plex­ity, and resource require­ments. They also rely on a sup­ply chain of highly-trained pro­fes­sion­als from diverse fields of know­ledge able to col­lab­or­ate glob­ally and seam­lessly and across mul­tiple sectors. 

CETs are cent­ral to Know­ledge and Tech­no­logy Intens­ive (KTI) indus­tries, which con­trib­uted over $9tn glob­ally in 2022, rep­res­ent­ing 11% of glob­al GDP. Five economies—the United States, China, the EU-27, Japan, and South Korea—accounted for 80% of glob­al KTI value, high­light­ing the con­cen­tra­tion of tech­no­lo­gic­al cap­ab­il­ity. This con­cen­tra­tion has promp­ted major policy ini­ti­at­ives aimed at secur­ing or expand­ing tech­no­lo­gic­al leadership.

The EU is pro­pos­ing a European com­pet­it­ive­ness fund to sup­port AI, semi­con­duct­ors, robot­ics, quantum com­put­ing, space, and biotechnologies.

In the United States, the 2020 Trump admin­is­tra­tion Nation­al Strategy iden­ti­fied 20 Crit­ic­al and Emer­ging tech­no­lo­gies essen­tial for defence and eco­nom­ic com­pet­it­ive­ness, includ­ing advanced com­put­ing, AI, bio­tech­no­lo­gies, quantum inform­a­tion sci­ence, and space tech­no­lo­gies. The 2022 CHIPS and Sci­ence Act fol­lowed with $280bn in com­mit­ments over ten years to strengthen semi­con­duct­or sup­ply chains and estab­lish the NSF’s Dir­ect­or­ate for Tech­no­logy, Innov­a­tion and Part­ner­ships. A March 2025 pres­id­en­tial exec­ut­ive order fur­ther tasked the White House Office of Sci­ence and Tech­no­logy Policy with secur­ing U.S. lead­er­ship through private sec­tor invest­ment and new research fund­ing approaches emphas­ising the ‘busi­ness’ of discovery.

Oth­er major eco­nom­ies have pur­sued par­al­lel strategies. The EU’s 2025 Com­pet­it­ive­ness Com­pass pro­poses a European Com­pet­it­ive­ness Fund sup­port­ing AI, semi­con­duct­ors, robot­ics, quantum com­put­ing, space, cleantech, and biotech. Japan’s Soci­ety 5.0 vis­ion emphas­ises AI, robot­ics, quantum tech­no­logy, and semi­con­duct­ors. Chin­a’s Made in China 2025 tar­gets man­u­fac­tur­ing trans­form­a­tion, lever­aging its extens­ive skilled work­force and dom­in­ance glob­ally in rare earth pro­duc­tion, which is essen­tial for elec­tron­ics and defence systems.

The trans­la­tion of sci­entif­ic advances into com­mer­cial applic­a­tions increas­ingly occurs through deep tech enterprises—companies lever­aging break­throughs in sci­ence and engin­eer­ing to address chal­lenges in energy, food secur­ity, space explor­a­tion, and dis­ease treat­ment. These ven­tures face dis­tinct chal­lenges: intens­ive early-stage R&D require­ments, sub­stan­tial cap­it­al needs before com­mer­cial­isa­tion, ded­ic­ated infra­struc­ture demands, and depend­ence on spe­cial­ised tal­ent in fields like optic­al quantum sys­tems engineering.

Deep tech sec­tors over­lap sig­ni­fic­antly with CETs, encom­passing AI, biotech, quantum com­put­ing, space tech­no­logy, and defence tech­no­logy. Recog­nising this con­nec­tion, the European Insti­tute of Innov­a­tion and Tech­no­logy’s Deep Tech Tal­ent Ini­ti­at­ive aims to train one mil­lion people across 15 deep tech areas by 2025. Nearly one-third of European ven­ture cap­it­al now flows to deep tech invest­ments. Sim­il­arly, the U.S. gov­ern­ment has been a major deep tech investor, though 2025 budget cuts to agen­cies like the NSF have raised con­cerns about sus­tained sup­port. China has taken a stra­tegic approach through a $138bn gov­ern­ment-backed fund tar­get­ing quantum com­put­ing and space technology.

The 2024 Nature Index rank­ing of sci­ence cit­ies high­lights that half of the world’s top 20 sci­ence cit­ies are now loc­ated in China.

The com­pet­i­tion for tech­no­lo­gic­al lead­er­ship ulti­mately depends on human cap­it­al. China cur­rently gradu­ates sig­ni­fic­antly more STEM stu­dents annu­ally than the U.S., Europe, and Japan com­bined, with over 40% of Chinese uni­ver­sity degrees in STEM fields com­pared to 20% in the U.S. The 2024 Nature Index Sci­ence Cit­ies rank­ing rein­forced this shift, show­ing that half of the world’s top 20 sci­ence cit­ies are now in China. The United States has his­tor­ic­ally com­pensated for domest­ic STEM pro­duc­tion through inter­na­tion­al tal­ent recruit­ment, par­tic­u­larly from China and India. How­ever, this advant­age is being chal­lenged by policy changes. Budget uncer­tain­ties and grant can­cel­la­tions have con­trib­uted to research­er depar­tures from U.S. insti­tu­tions. The Septem­ber 2025 pres­id­en­tial pro­clam­a­tion impos­ing $100,000 fees for new H‑1B visa applic­a­tions has par­tic­u­larly affected the tech­no­logy sec­tor, poten­tially accel­er­at­ing tal­ent flows to com­pet­ing nations.

While much atten­tion focuses on major tech­no­logy hubs, region­al innov­a­tion eco­sys­tems also play import­ant roles in advan­cing space and Crit­ic­al and Emer­ging tech­no­lo­gies. New Mex­ico provides a use­ful example of how states can sup­port tech­no­logy devel­op­ment through infra­struc­ture invest­ment and research insti­tu­tions. State-owned Spa­ce­port Amer­ica offers rock­et test­ing facil­it­ies used by com­pan­ies includ­ing SpaceX, provid­ing access to spe­cial­ised infra­struc­ture that would require sub­stan­tial private invest­ment to rep­lic­ate. At New Mex­ico Tech, research­ers are apply­ing bio­mim­icry prin­ciples to devel­op drone tech­no­lo­gies with applic­a­tions ran­ging from plan­et­ary explor­a­tion to wild­life mon­it­or­ing and avi­ation safety.

One pro­ject exam­ines how mon­arch but­ter­fly col­or­a­tion con­trib­utes to energy con­ser­va­tion dur­ing their 3,000-mile migra­tion, with find­ings that could inform avi­ation effi­ciency improve­ments. Anoth­er ini­ti­at­ive is devel­op­ing mil­li­gram-scale fly­ing sensors inspired by dan­deli­on seeds for Mars explor­a­tion. These sensors use piezo­elec­tric mater­i­als to har­vest sol­ar and atmo­spher­ic energy, enabling autonom­ous oper­a­tion in Mar­tian lava tubes without bat­ter­ies. Addi­tion­al research includes nature-friendly sur­veil­lance drones using pre­served taxi­dermy that blend with wild­life pop­u­la­tions, provid­ing insights into bird flight phys­ics and flock­ing beha­viours applic­able to com­mer­cial avi­ation. These find­ings inform the devel­op­ment of pred­at­or bird drones designed to reduce costly bird strikes at air­ports. The New Mex­ico Bosque del Apache Nation­al Wild­life Refuge provides an ideal obser­vat­ory for this research.

Bey­ond research out­put, New Mex­ico Tech is devel­op­ing as a region­al drone tech­no­logy hub through work­force devel­op­ment ini­ti­at­ives. A K‑12 drone pro­gram enables high school stu­dents to design and build drones dur­ing sum­mer ses­sions, while approx­im­ately 40 gradu­ate stu­dents from diverse dis­cip­lines have par­ti­cip­ated in drone tech­no­logy, bio­mim­icry, and plan­et­ary explor­a­tion research. 

Many of these stu­dents have been awar­ded pres­ti­gi­ous prizes for their con­tri­bu­tions and these are fre­quently cel­eb­rated on social media. These stu­dents bond early as a team and are vis­ible presenters at major con­fer­ences such as the 2025 AIAA Avi­ation and ASCEND Con­fer­ence, shar­ing their work on drones and aerospace sys­tems. Import­ant local/regional com­munity out­reach gen­er­at­ing excite­ment about how NMT is revolu­tion­ising drone tech­no­logy is also achieved on an ongo­ing basis through a num­ber of pub­lic out­lets, includ­ing media inter­views with e.g., New Mex­ico Fron­ti­ers Digit­al Show KRQE.

A drone major is cur­rently being designed to con­nect com­munity col­leges across New Mex­ico to cre­ate a path­way for a future gen­er­a­tion of stu­dents to act­ively con­trib­ute as part of the work­force designed for the State’s aerospace industry. As part of the core facil­it­ies avail­able there is also a net­ted drone cage where any types of drones can be tested without hav­ing to worry about breach­ing the FAA rules.

With grow­ing demand from gov­ern­ments through­out the world for more ‘bang for buck’ from their sci­entif­ic research invest­ments, stra­tegic tar­get­ing of CETs will likely intensi­fy, with increased expect­a­tions for break­through res­ults. How­ever, real­ising the poten­tial of these tech­no­lo­gies requires address­ing sev­er­al inter­con­nec­ted chal­lenges. First, devel­op­ing inter­dis­cip­lin­ary high-tech tal­ent requires rethink­ing edu­ca­tion and train­ing approaches to foster col­lab­or­a­tion across tra­di­tion­al dis­cip­lin­ary bound­ar­ies. Second, attract­ing invest­ment cap­it­al that accepts high tech­nic­al risk and exten­ded devel­op­ment timelines remains dif­fi­cult with­in con­ven­tion­al fund­ing struc­tures. Third, secur­ing infra­struc­ture access depends on cross-sec­tor part­ner­ships between gov­ern­ment, aca­demia, and industry; rela­tion­ships that require sus­tained com­mit­ment and align­ment of incentives.

The New Mex­ico Tech example illus­trates how these chal­lenges can be addressed through coordin­ated approaches com­bin­ing research facil­it­ies, cross-sec­tor part­ner­ships, and multi-level tal­ent devel­op­ment. By con­nect­ing sci­entif­ic achieve­ment with prac­tic­al applic­a­tions, such eco­sys­tems can inform pub­lic-private invest­ment decisions and accel­er­ate tech­no­logy com­mer­cial­isa­tion. Suc­cess in the emer­ging space eco­nomy and related tech­no­logy sec­tors will ulti­mately depend on how effect­ively nations and regions address these fun­da­ment­al chal­lenges while fos­ter­ing innov­a­tion across pub­lic and private domains. The con­tin­ued expan­sion of space activ­it­ies, com­bined with advances in Crit­ic­al and Emer­ging tech­no­lo­gies, sug­gests that the com­ing dec­ades will see sig­ni­fic­ant devel­op­ments in how human­ity accesses and uses space—developments that will be shaped as much by policy choices and insti­tu­tion­al arrange­ments as by tech­no­lo­gic­al capabilities.

Dr Has­sanali­an acknow­ledges the sup­port of: the US NSF; New Mex­ico Space Grant; NASA; Alpha Found­a­tion; NIOSH-CDC; New Mex­ico CONSORTIUM; and SciVista.