“Climate change happens 20% faster in the Mediterranean”

Along with the polar regions, the Medi­ter­ranean basin is one of the loc­a­tions in the world most impacted by the effects of cli­mate change. Tem­per­at­ures there are rising 20% faster than else­where; already 1.5°C high­er than pre-indus­tri­al tem­per­at­ures. For every 1°C increase, there is a ~4% rise in rain­fall. This shift is lead­ing to a para­dox­ic­al effect on cli­mate, char­ac­ter­ised by more extreme pre­cip­it­a­tion and much longer peri­ods of dry spells and droughts – with 10–30% less sum­mer rainfall. 

Pro­jec­tions show that in the worst-case scen­ario, tem­per­at­ures could rise as much as a fur­ther 6.5°C by the end of the cen­tury. Sea level has ris­en by 6 cm over the past 20 years and is expec­ted to upsurge by anoth­er 90 cm between now and 2100, and obser­va­tions of the Medi­ter­ranean Sea show increases in salin­ity and acid­i­fic­a­tion. Not to men­tion the pres­ence of invas­ive spe­cies both on land and in the sea, with reper­cus­sions on loc­al biodiversity. 

Hence, now is the time for pro­act­ive solu­tions mov­ing for­ward in region. In Novem­ber 2020, the inde­pend­ent net­work of Medi­ter­ranean Experts on Cli­mate and envir­on­ment­al Change (MedECC), foun­ded in 2015, pub­lished the report, “Cli­mate and Envir­on­ment­al Change in the Medi­ter­ranean Basin Cur­rent Situ­ation and Risks for the Future 1st Medi­ter­ranean Assess­ment Report” ¹. MedECC com­bines efforts from 190 experts such as myself from 43 coun­tries in the EU, North Africa and Middle East. Referred to as MAR1, the report out­lines cli­mate and envir­on­ment­al issues spe­cif­ic to the Medi­ter­ranean and what to expect in the com­ing years. 

In the chapter of MAR1 on the energy trans­ition, which I coordin­ated through the Energy4Climate inter­dis­cip­lin­ary Centre ² and Insti­tut Pierre Simon Laplace ³, we show that the Medi­ter­ranean region is respons­ible for only a com­par­at­ively small share of glob­al green­house gas emis­sions – as little as 6%. Non­ethe­less, the region is greatly affected by their effects.

Cli­mate change in the Medi­ter­ranean is expec­ted to affect energy pro­duc­tion (due to impacts on resources and infra­struc­ture) and energy use (by decreased heat­ing demand and increased cool­ing needs). We expect fossil fuels to remain the main source of energy until 2040, which will gradu­ally be phased out by oth­er tech­no­lo­gies. The fig­ures show that the share of renew­able energy will triple to reach as much as 27% of the over­all mix. A factor to con­sider is that warm­ing in the region is actu­ally expec­ted to res­ult in losses in renew­able energy pro­duc­tion. The impact of such will be mar­gin­al if glob­al warm­ing does not exceed 2°C, how­ever it will drastic­ally deteri­or­ate if tem­per­at­ures rise bey­ond 2°C. 

Tra­di­tion­al hydro­power and ther­mo­elec­tric power capa­city is expec­ted to decline due to decreased stream­flow and increased water tem­per­at­ure – sea sur­face tem­per­at­ure could increase by anoth­er 1–4°C by the end of the cen­tury. Non­ethe­less, by fur­ther improv­ing energy effi­ciency and deploy­ing renew­able ener­gies on a large scale, the entire Medi­ter­ranean region can reduce ten­sions over energy secur­ity for import­ing coun­tries, improve oppor­tun­it­ies for export­ing coun­tries and reduce costs of energy and envir­on­ment­al dam­age for the whole region. 

To be suc­cess­ful in its large-scale energy trans­ition, the region will need more inclus­ive energy policies that will undoubtedly pass by a more col­lab­or­at­ive approach from the coun­tries con­cerned. Even though the shift is not a giv­en, there is great poten­tial for clean power in the region, par­tic­u­larly sol­ar. There are already region­al col­lab­or­a­tions on the go, which are help­ing to facil­it­ate this move­ment across coun­tries and states in the area. These include energy mar­ket reg­u­lat­ors like MEDREG and MEDSO, or MEDENER an agency focused on envir­on­ment­al and energy policies on both sides of the Mediterranean. 

Efforts like these will hope­fully encour­age coun­tries to suc­cess­fully move away from fossil fuels to the bene­fit of the envir­on­ment. Moreover, policies and action should also cre­ate jobs and improve the social well-being for the population.

Improv­ing energy effi­ciency and deploy­ing renew­able energy on a large scale will there­fore become necessary.

Above the fact that the geo­graph­ic­al pos­i­tion of the zone is an amp­li­fi­er of glob­al warm­ing mak­ing the zone a “hot spot”, the MAR1 report also talks about oth­er prob­lems spe­cif­ic to the Medi­ter­ranean. At sea, the con­sequences of rap­id region­al cli­mate change are the increas­ing acid­i­fic­a­tion of sea­wa­ter and the rise in aver­age sea level. On land, there is an increase in dur­a­tion and amp­litude of heat waves and a decrease in sum­mer pre­cip­it­a­tion in some regions, res­ult­ing in increased water short­ages and desertification. 

Factors of change also include pop­u­la­tion growth, pol­lu­tion of the air, soils, rivers and oceans, unsus­tain­able land and sea use prac­tices. Com­bined, these effects have numer­ous con­sequences such as degrad­a­tion of nat­ur­al resources, redu­cing the avail­ab­il­ity of fresh water, thermal com­fort, and increas­ing risks to human health. Those par­tic­u­larly affected will be dis­ad­vant­aged and vul­ner­able pop­u­la­tions. Con­flicts caused by resource scarcity and human migra­tion are likely to increase due to drought and the deteri­or­a­tion of agri­cul­tur­al and fish­ery resources, but socio-eco­nom­ic and polit­ic­al factors are likely to still play a major role.

As such, MAR1 sets the ground­work for the region to start think­ing about the answers to the big ques­tions yet to come: how can the region adapt to the chan­ging cli­mate? What inform­a­tion will help sup­port future policies? Can the Medi­ter­ranean be more sustainable?