Why COP28 was a critical conference for small island states

The recent 28^th Confe­rence of Par­ties (COP28) held in Dubai had a strong focus on Small Island Deve­lo­ping States. These are many small sove­rei­gn enti­ties, pre­do­mi­nant­ly loca­ted in the Carib­bean and the Paci­fic, who are cur­rent­ly expe­rien­cing first-hand dra­ma­tic changes brought along by cli­mate change. The shift in focus to these regions has been sprung by rising awa­re­ness towards the increa­sing fre­quen­cy of extra­or­di­na­ry cli­mate events that have hit many small island deve­lo­ping states throu­ghout the last decade.

In 2017 alone, 22 out of the 29 Carib­bean Islands were affec­ted by Tro­pi­cal Cyclone Maria, which cau­sed consi­de­rable damage to their socie­ties and eco­no­mies. Ear­lier this year, two cate­go­ry 4 cyclones hit Vanua­tu in less than 24 hours, cau­sing irre­me­diable damage¹. The situa­tion is made even worse by the fact that these are par­ti­cu­lar­ly fra­gile states as they are loca­ted in ter­ri­to­ries that under six metres above sea-level and more than 50% of their infra­struc­ture concen­tra­ted in in the near proxi­mi­ty of the coast (less than 500 meters)².

Over the two weeks dedi­ca­ted to the event, the COP28 tack­led the issues of cli­mate adap­ta­tion and miti­ga­tion within these par­ti­cu­lar­ly chal­len­ging zones, also dedi­ca­ting part of the nego­tia­tions to the adop­tion of an enhan­ced trans­pa­ren­cy fra­me­work for their cli­mate strategies.

The threat of sea level rise, toge­ther with the increa­sing fre­quen­cy of droughts and extreme wea­ther events such as cyclones and typhoons, cause not only a reduc­tion in the ter­ri­to­ry avai­lable to the popu­la­tion, but also in the ter­ri­to­ry sui­table for land culti­va­tion. This ulti­ma­te­ly gene­rates both a pro­blem of cli­mate mobi­li­ty and dis­pla­ce­ment, whe­re­by people are for­ced out of their homes because of the hos­ti­li­ty of their ter­ri­to­ry, and a pro­blem of eco­no­mic depen­dence on imports from deve­lo­ped coun­tries. Fore­casts do not appear par­ti­cu­lar­ly rosy. In fact, accor­ding to the 2022 IPCC report, under the sce­na­rio of a 2.5°C tem­pe­ra­ture increase, sea level is expec­ted to increase by approxi­ma­te­ly 58 cm by 2100, cau­sing a nega­tive impact on approxi­ma­te­ly 430 mil­lion people. 

Poo­rer coun­tries bear most of the loss and damage cau­sed by cli­mate change – which is esti­ma­ted to exceed $150bn per year –, and they often do so through unsus­tai­nable debt³. As a glo­bal res­ponse to the claims for an increa­sed accoun­ta­bi­li­ty fra­me­work for high­ly emit­ting indus­trial stra­te­gies, the Loss and Damage Fund – whose name was har­sh­ly oppo­sed by the Uni­ted States at COP 28⁴ – was agreed upon in 2022 but is now taking form. Many coun­tries have agreed to contri­bute to it, name­ly France, Ita­ly, and the UAE, having pro­mi­sed $100 mil­lion each, making the total amount pled­ged during the confe­rence rise to $770 mil­lion, of which around $115 mil­lion will be employed to set the fund up at the World Bank. The remain­der will be used to invest pri­ma­ri­ly in cli­mate adap­ta­tion and miti­ga­tion in SIDS⁵.

This money will, howe­ver, be able to cover only 0.2% of the needs of small island deve­lo­ping states, which range from the invest­ment in adap­ta­tion tech­no­lo­gies (that need to be adop­ted to prevent the phy­si­cal disap­pea­rance of these ter­ri­to­ries) to the need to invest in their ener­gy tran­si­tion. The lat­ter is inten­ded both as a tool for them to contri­bute to the glo­bal fos­sil fuel phase out and to detach them­selves from inter­na­tio­nal ener­gy imports. 

COP28 has also dealt with the pro­blem of cli­mate miti­ga­tion in SIDS. “Rene­wables is the gift that keeps on giving,” men­tio­ned Anto­nio Gutierres, Secre­ta­ry Gene­ral of the UN, at the begin­ning of the confe­rence to high­light the impor­tance of stri­ving once again for a gree­ner, more sus­tai­nable future away from fos­sil fuels. Decem­ber 5^th was the day dedi­ca­ted to the topic of just tran­si­tion, i.e. the pro­cess of accoun­ting for the need to gene­rate decent work and qua­li­ty jobs in the gra­dual decar­bo­ni­sa­tion of the eco­no­my, as sta­ted by the preamble of the Paris Agree­ment (2015)⁶. Among the many events, a confe­rence on the sus­tai­nable ener­gy tran­si­tion of small island deve­lo­ping states was held, which repre­sen­ted a plat­form for many SIDS’ glo­bal lea­ders to share the expe­rience of their countries. 

The suc­cess sto­ries of Bar­ba­dos and Sey­chelles are not repre­sen­ta­tive of the broa­der situa­tion of SIDS.

Doc­tor Sena­tor Shan­tal Mun­ro Knight, Minis­ter in the Office of the Prime Minis­ter of Bar­ba­dos, inter­ve­ned to show­case the fore­run­ner role of her coun­try in the just tran­si­tion of SIDS. Bar­ba­dos is indeed stri­ving for a net zero tar­get by 2035, making it the first small island deve­lo­ping state to be able to achieve this pro­jec­ted objec­tive. On the same wave­length is the state of Sey­chelles, where wind and solar power represent a great oppor­tu­ni­ty for a sus­tai­nable ener­gy tran­si­tion. As Fla­vien Jou­bert, Minis­ter of Agri­cul­ture, Cli­mate Change and Envi­ron­ment of Sey­chelles, announ­ced, the coun­try has pro­du­ced around 22 MW of wind power in the last decade, a thre­shold that has enabled it to achieve its 5% rene­wable ener­gy tar­get by 2020. He also decla­red that the coun­try is now tar­ge­ting a 100% rene­wable ener­gy port­fo­lio by 2050, a goal whose rele­vance has been sta­ted by the IPCC for glo­bal mean tem­pe­ra­tures to be contai­ned within a 1.5°C rise. 

Howe­ver, the suc­cess sto­ries of Bar­ba­dos and Sey­chelles are not repre­sen­ta­tive of the broa­der situa­tion of SIDS. Tran­si­tio­ning towards rene­wable ener­gy sources calls for very large, almost pro­hi­bi­tive, invest­ments. Vince Hen­der­son, minis­ter of forei­gn affairs, inter­na­tio­nal busi­ness, trade and ener­gy of Domi­ni­ca, repor­ted that his coun­try is about to sign an agree­ment with Ormat Tech­no­lo­gies for a pro­ject invol­ving the deve­lop­ment of a geo­ther­mal power plant with an ini­tial pro­duc­tion capa­ci­ty of 10 MW, with the ulti­mate goal of tran­si­tio­ning towards green hydro­gen⁷. He men­tio­ned that rea­ching the agree­ment was “a tre­men­dous struggle” and accu­sed deve­lo­ped coun­tries of having pro­vi­ded insuf­fi­cient finan­cial mecha­nisms to sup­port SIDS in power pur­chase agree­ments and conclu­ded his inter­ven­tion at the SIDS’ ener­gy tran­si­tion panel by saying : “We need to ask our­selves why us, the SIDS, sho­wing more com­mit­ment than the others, haven’t been able to turn com­mit­ment into real action”. 

Invest­ments need not only to be flo­wing in, but they must com­ply with the spe­ci­fic equi­ty and acces­si­bi­li­ty requi­re­ments of the indi­vi­dual states : “It’s neces­sa­ry to make sure that emergent tech­no­lo­gies and finan­cial ins­tru­ments are fit for the pur­poses of the spe­ci­fic islands,”  conclu­ded sena­tor Shan­tal Mun­ro Knight when dis­cus­sing the hard­ships that SIDS face in ope­ra­tio­na­li­sing capi­tal that flows in. 

During a confe­rence held on Decem­ber 4^th at the U.S. pavi­lion on the topic of cli­mate finance stra­te­gies for SIDS (U.S. Depart­ment of State, 2023), Mia Mot­tley, the Prime Minis­ter of Bar­ba­dos, explai­ned how the finan­cial under pro­vi­sion that SIDS are facing goes hand in hand with the rising cli­ma­tic uncer­tain­ty that they are wit­nes­sing, which increases the risk coef­fi­cients of any type of invest­ment. She insis­ted that in the like­ly event of a wor­se­ning of cli­mate condi­tions, the tip­ping point for SIDS would be to become “com­ple­te­ly unin­su­rable and un-inves­tible”. This would gene­rate a finan­cial insuf­fi­cien­cy loop that would endan­ger the eco­no­mic and ener­ge­tic auto­no­my of these states.

Within the goal of sup­por­ting the just tran­si­tion of SIDS and de-ris­king cli­mate finance, it is impor­tant to high­light the com­mit­ment of IRENA (Inter­na­tio­nal Rene­wable Ener­gy Agen­cy), that has laun­ched the SIDS Ligh­thouse Ini­tia­tive in 2014, a com­pre­hen­sive action fra­me­work aimed at gene­ra­ting finan­cial sup­port from more than 80 part­ners. The LHI has also esta­bli­shed the ETAF (Ener­gy Tran­si­tion Acce­le­ra­ting Finance Plat­form) a finan­cing plat­form which has rea­ched a pledge of $1bn alrea­dy, still howe­ver fal­ling short of the esti­ma­ted $200bn nee­ded to cover the cli­mate needs of these deve­lo­ping coun­tries by 2025⁸. In the eyes of Fran­ces­co La Came­ra, Direc­tor Gene­ral of the agen­cy, honou­red with the ope­ning remarks to the panel dis­cus­sion of Decem­ber 5^th, it is vital that more inves­tors and small island states join the part­ner­ship, to create a net­work of mutual trust and accoun­ta­bi­li­ty that reduces risks for inves­tors and makes the coun­tries a safer and more reliable invest­ment target. 

SIDS are to be consi­de­red an example in lea­ding towards a gree­ner ener­gy eco­no­my. Under article 13, the Paris Agree­ment over­saw the deci­sion of adop­ting an Enhan­ced Trans­pa­ren­cy Fra­me­work for tra­cking and repor­ting natio­nal green­house gas emis­sions and have a clo­ser look at Natio­nal­ly Deter­mi­ned Contri­bu­tions⁹. While the repor­ting tools have been pro­du­ced and tes­ted, but not yet ope­ra­tio­na­li­sed. Indeed, they are pre­dic­ted to become ope­ra­tio­nal by June 2024. Many deve­lo­ping coun­tries have alrea­dy begun revie­wing their trans­pa­ren­cy fra­me­work under the assis­tance of the Ini­tia­tive for Cli­mate Action Trans­pa­ren­cy (ICAT) and the Green­house Gas Mana­ge­ment Ins­ti­tute (GHGMI).

Within its mis­sion, the ICAT has sup­por­ted many SIDS (such as Mal­dives, Fiji or Tri­ni­dad and Toba­go) in buil­ding sec­to­ral (or eco­no­my-wise) mea­su­re­ment fra­me­works, and tools to deve­lop emis­sion fore­casts and pro­jec­tions and track cli­mate finance. During a confe­rence held on Decem­ber 1^st and hos­ted by the UNFCCC and ICAT, some of the expe­riences of SIDS were sha­red (ICAT, 2023). Aaliyah Tuitt, the Tech­ni­cal Data Offi­cer from Anti­gua and Bar­bu­da’s Depart­ment of Envi­ron­ment, out­li­ned the nation’s stra­te­gy of trans­pa­ren­cy to bol­ster cli­mate ini­tia­tives in trans­por­ta­tion. This approach – hea­vi­ly relying on the col­lec­tion of data from mobi­li­ty users – will prove pivo­tal in faci­li­ta­ting a smooth shift towards elec­tric vehicles, whose sale is expec­ted to reach 100% of mar­ket sales by 2030. 

Simi­lar­ly, Dee­pi­ti­ka Chand from Fiji’s Cli­mate Change Divi­sion in the Prime Minister’s office illus­tra­ted how the nation uti­li­zed trans­pa­ren­cy fra­me­works to assess the influence of agri­cul­ture on green­house gas emis­sions. By doing so, the natio­nal admi­nis­tra­tion gai­ned dee­per insights into its emis­sion pat­terns and the spe­ci­fic requi­re­ments of the agri­cul­tu­ral sec­tor, paving the way for tar­ge­ted poli­cy deci­sions which will be able to gua­ran­tee food secu­ri­ty, enhance pro­duc­tion qua­li­ty, and fos­ter resi­lient, gen­der-inclu­sive food systems.

COP28 revea­led an ope­ra­tio­nal delay dis­played by most deve­lo­ped coun­tries, who have fai­led to achieve a suf­fi­cient­ly green ener­gy portfolio.

Mol­ly White, senior direc­tor at the GHGMI, prai­sed the panel­lists for the impor­tant contri­bu­tions of their coun­tries, par­ti­cu­lar­ly high­ligh­ting their open­ness to this inno­va­tive tra­cking stra­te­gy. She also empha­si­zed the impor­tance of the lear­ning pro­cess deri­ved from this enhan­ced trans­pa­ren­cy mode of ope­ra­tion : she men­tio­ned the dif­fi­cul­ty of inte­gra­ting sec­to­ral plan­ning into eco­no­my-wide cli­mate tar­get set­ting, to be able to have a clo­ser look at the macroe­co­no­mic per­for­mance of a coun­try in rela­tion to its cli­mate stra­te­gy. When, asked how deve­lo­ped coun­tries could learn the les­son of deve­lo­ping ones, she men­tio­ned that this would represent the grea­test chal­lenge for the future, given that signi­fi­cant hurdles would be encoun­te­red in sca­ling up this inte­gra­ted eco­no­mic fra­me­work of ana­ly­sis, due to the tra­cka­bi­li­ty issues and the broa­der set of eco­no­mic acti­vi­ties that deve­lo­ped coun­tries are invol­ved in.

By the end of the two weeks dedi­ca­ted to the event, the out­comes of the first glo­bal stock­take at COP28 revea­led an ope­ra­tio­nal delay dis­played by most deve­lo­ped coun­tries, who have fai­led to ful­fil their NDCs and achieve a suf­fi­cient­ly green ener­gy port­fo­lio to remain in line with a 1.5°C mean tem­pe­ra­ture rise goal. The pledges made to the Loss and Damage Fund by many high­ly emit­ting coun­tries reflect the public awa­re­ness of the imba­lance in emis­sions obser­ved among dif­ferent states. This, des­pite laying the foun­da­tions for a more inten­sive invest­ment in both cli­mate miti­ga­tion and adap­ta­tion in SIDS, does not delay the need of deve­lo­ped coun­tries to speed up fos­sil phase out in an attempt to prevent small island states from disappearing. 

The esta­blish­ment of the enhan­ced trans­pa­ren­cy fra­me­work will contri­bute to gua­ran­tee higher cla­ri­ty on the decar­bo­ni­sa­tion stra­te­gies of many of the most emit­ting coun­tries, who are now more than ever requi­red to take effec­tive action. “Although we are not res­pon­sible, we are facing coun­try-wise des­truc­tion”: these were the clo­sing remarks to the Decem­ber 5^th confe­rence of Kon­ris May­nard, minis­ter of public infra­struc­ture in St. Kitts and Nevis, a small Carib­bean insu­lar state where elec­tri­ci­ty can­not be pro­vi­ded 24 hours a day. “We are loo­king for part­ner­ship, not sym­pa­thy,” he added. 

As we now approach COP29 in Baku, signi­fi­cant atten­tion will be focu­sed on the ope­ra­tio­na­li­za­tion of funds and the com­mit­ment of pro­minent states to sup­port Small Island Deve­lo­ping States in their fight for sur­vi­val. The topics of dis­cus­sion will also reflect the out­come of the 4^th Inter­na­tio­nal Confe­rence on Small Island Deve­lo­ping States, which will be held in Anti­gua and Bar­bu­da in May 2024, and will deve­lop a 10-year action pro­gram for SIDS, with concrete tar­gets requi­red to sup­port them in their sus­tai­nable deve­lop­ment objec­tives¹⁰.