Space powers : how critical technologies are emerging from public-private partnerships

The space eco­no­my is under­going a fun­da­men­tal trans­for­ma­tion. In July 2021, pri­vate space flights by Richard Bran­son and Jeff Bezos demons­tra­ted the gro­wing com­mer­cial via­bi­li­ty of space tra­vel. That same year, Chi­na’s Zhu­rong rover joi­ned NASA’s Per­se­ve­rance on Mars, reflec­ting increa­sed inter­na­tio­nal par­ti­ci­pa­tion in space explo­ra­tion. These deve­lop­ments signal a broa­der shift in how govern­ments and pri­vate enter­prises approach space, with ana­lysts pro­jec­ting the space eco­no­my could reach $1.8 tril­lion by 2035.

This pro­jec­ted growth encom­passes diverse acti­vi­ties ran­ging from satel­lite deploy­ment and navi­ga­tion sys­tems to space tou­rism and pla­ne­ta­ry explo­ra­tion. NASA’s plan­ned 2028 Dra­gon­fly mis­sion, which will send a quad­cop­ter-like rover to Saturn’s moon Titan using tech­no­lo­gies demons­tra­ted by Mars’ Inge­nui­ty heli­cop­ter, exem­pli­fies how public agen­cies and pri­vate com­pa­nies are increa­sin­gly col­la­bo­ra­ting to advance space capa­bi­li­ties. SpaceX’s Fal­con Hea­vy alrea­dy having been boo­ked for the launch.

The legal foun­da­tion for space acti­vi­ties was esta­bli­shed through the UN’s 1967 Outer Space Trea­ty, which desi­gna­ted space as a com­mons for all man­kind, and the 1979 Moon Agree­ment, which pro­hi­bi­ted resource owner­ship. Howe­ver, these fra­me­works are being rein­ter­pre­ted and sup­ple­men­ted as com­mer­cial space acti­vi­ty expands. The 2020 U.S. Arte­mis Accords represent one such evo­lu­tion, crea­ting non-bin­ding mul­ti­la­te­ral arran­ge­ments for space coope­ra­tion. By July 2025, 56 coun­tries had signed these accords. Meanw­hile, natio­nal space pro­grams have pro­li­fe­ra­ted glo­bal­ly, with the Euro­pean Com­mis­sion’s June 2025 EU Space Act expli­cit­ly tar­ge­ting lea­der­ship in the space eco­no­my. These poli­cy ini­tia­tives have coin­ci­ded with tech­no­lo­gi­cal advances, par­ti­cu­lar­ly in AI and robo­tics, that have redu­ced space flight costs and acce­le­ra­ted innovation.

Com­mer­cial inter­ests have also sha­ped the regu­la­to­ry envi­ron­ment. The Uni­ted States legis­la­ted space resource extrac­tion for its citi­zens in 2015, with Luxem­bourg, the UAE, and Japan enac­ting simi­lar pro­vi­sions. More recent­ly, August 2025 White House exe­cu­tive orders empha­si­sed U.S. com­mer­cial space lea­der­ship. This poli­cy direc­tion reflects expec­ta­tions that the space eco­no­my will deli­ver satel­lite inter­net, enhan­ced navi­ga­tion, low Earth orbit com­merce, space tou­rism, in-space manu­fac­tu­ring, aste­roid mining, and poten­tial set­tle­ments beyond Earth. These oppor­tu­ni­ties, howe­ver, coexist with signi­fi­cant chal­lenges. Space debris in low Earth orbit poses gro­wing risks to satel­lites and mis­sions. While the U.S., Rus­sia, and Chi­na are res­pon­sible for most orbi­tal debris, regu­la­to­ry fra­me­works remain under­de­ve­lo­ped. The absence of accep­ted defi­ni­tions dis­tin­gui­shing debris from func­tio­nal objects com­pli­cates risk assess­ment and invest­ment deci­sions, crea­ting uncer­tain­ty that could constrain future growth.

Under­lying the space eco­no­my’s expan­sion is a broa­der com­pe­ti­tion for lea­der­ship in Cri­ti­cal and Emer­ging Tech­no­lo­gies (CETs). These tech­no­lo­gies, often dual-pur­pose (civilian/economy and defence), include AI, advan­ced semi­con­duc­tors, quan­tum com­pu­ting, cloud ser­vices, drones, GPS, satel­lites, and advan­ced manu­fac­tu­ring and mate­rials. The ‘cri­ti­cal’ aspect refer­ring essen­tial­ly to emer­ging tech­no­lo­gies with the capa­ci­ty to gene­rate break­throughs in key areas of natio­nal inter­ests. CETs are cha­rac­te­ri­sed by their novel­ty, com­plexi­ty, and resource requi­re­ments. They also rely on a sup­ply chain of high­ly-trai­ned pro­fes­sio­nals from diverse fields of know­ledge able to col­la­bo­rate glo­bal­ly and seam­less­ly and across mul­tiple sectors. 

CETs are cen­tral to Know­ledge and Tech­no­lo­gy Inten­sive (KTI) indus­tries, which contri­bu­ted over $9tn glo­bal­ly in 2022, repre­sen­ting 11% of glo­bal GDP. Five economies—the Uni­ted States, Chi­na, the EU-27, Japan, and South Korea—accounted for 80% of glo­bal KTI value, high­ligh­ting the concen­tra­tion of tech­no­lo­gi­cal capa­bi­li­ty. This concen­tra­tion has promp­ted major poli­cy ini­tia­tives aimed at secu­ring or expan­ding tech­no­lo­gi­cal leadership.

The EU is pro­po­sing a Euro­pean com­pe­ti­ti­ve­ness fund to sup­port AI, semi­con­duc­tors, robo­tics, quan­tum com­pu­ting, space, and biotechnologies.

In the Uni­ted States, the 2020 Trump admi­nis­tra­tion Natio­nal Stra­te­gy iden­ti­fied 20 Cri­ti­cal and Emer­ging tech­no­lo­gies essen­tial for defence and eco­no­mic com­pe­ti­ti­ve­ness, inclu­ding advan­ced com­pu­ting, AI, bio­tech­no­lo­gies, quan­tum infor­ma­tion science, and space tech­no­lo­gies. The 2022 CHIPS and Science Act fol­lo­wed with $280bn in com­mit­ments over ten years to streng­then semi­con­duc­tor sup­ply chains and esta­blish the NSF’s Direc­to­rate for Tech­no­lo­gy, Inno­va­tion and Part­ner­ships. A March 2025 pre­si­den­tial exe­cu­tive order fur­ther tas­ked the White House Office of Science and Tech­no­lo­gy Poli­cy with secu­ring U.S. lea­der­ship through pri­vate sec­tor invest­ment and new research fun­ding approaches empha­si­sing the ‘busi­ness’ of discovery.

Other major eco­no­mies have pur­sued paral­lel stra­te­gies. The EU’s 2025 Com­pe­ti­ti­ve­ness Com­pass pro­poses a Euro­pean Com­pe­ti­ti­ve­ness Fund sup­por­ting AI, semi­con­duc­tors, robo­tics, quan­tum com­pu­ting, space, clean­tech, and bio­tech. Japan’s Socie­ty 5.0 vision empha­sises AI, robo­tics, quan­tum tech­no­lo­gy, and semi­con­duc­tors. Chi­na’s Made in Chi­na 2025 tar­gets manu­fac­tu­ring trans­for­ma­tion, leve­ra­ging its exten­sive skilled work­force and domi­nance glo­bal­ly in rare earth pro­duc­tion, which is essen­tial for elec­tro­nics and defence systems.

The trans­la­tion of scien­ti­fic advances into com­mer­cial appli­ca­tions increa­sin­gly occurs through deep tech enterprises—companies leve­ra­ging break­throughs in science and engi­nee­ring to address chal­lenges in ener­gy, food secu­ri­ty, space explo­ra­tion, and disease treat­ment. These ven­tures face dis­tinct chal­lenges : inten­sive ear­ly-stage R&D requi­re­ments, sub­stan­tial capi­tal needs before com­mer­cia­li­sa­tion, dedi­ca­ted infra­struc­ture demands, and depen­dence on spe­cia­li­sed talent in fields like opti­cal quan­tum sys­tems engineering.

Deep tech sec­tors over­lap signi­fi­cant­ly with CETs, encom­pas­sing AI, bio­tech, quan­tum com­pu­ting, space tech­no­lo­gy, and defence tech­no­lo­gy. Reco­gni­sing this connec­tion, the Euro­pean Ins­ti­tute of Inno­va­tion and Tech­no­lo­gy’s Deep Tech Talent Ini­tia­tive aims to train one mil­lion people across 15 deep tech areas by 2025. Near­ly one-third of Euro­pean ven­ture capi­tal now flows to deep tech invest­ments. Simi­lar­ly, the U.S. govern­ment has been a major deep tech inves­tor, though 2025 bud­get cuts to agen­cies like the NSF have rai­sed concerns about sus­tai­ned sup­port. Chi­na has taken a stra­te­gic approach through a $138bn govern­ment-backed fund tar­ge­ting quan­tum com­pu­ting and space technology.

The 2024 Nature Index ran­king of science cities high­lights that half of the world’s top 20 science cities are now loca­ted in China.

The com­pe­ti­tion for tech­no­lo­gi­cal lea­der­ship ulti­ma­te­ly depends on human capi­tal. Chi­na cur­rent­ly gra­duates signi­fi­cant­ly more STEM stu­dents annual­ly than the U.S., Europe, and Japan com­bi­ned, with over 40% of Chi­nese uni­ver­si­ty degrees in STEM fields com­pa­red to 20% in the U.S. The 2024 Nature Index Science Cities ran­king rein­for­ced this shift, sho­wing that half of the world’s top 20 science cities are now in Chi­na. The Uni­ted States has his­to­ri­cal­ly com­pen­sa­ted for domes­tic STEM pro­duc­tion through inter­na­tio­nal talent recruit­ment, par­ti­cu­lar­ly from Chi­na and India. Howe­ver, this advan­tage is being chal­len­ged by poli­cy changes. Bud­get uncer­tain­ties and grant can­cel­la­tions have contri­bu­ted to resear­cher depar­tures from U.S. ins­ti­tu­tions. The Sep­tem­ber 2025 pre­si­den­tial pro­cla­ma­tion impo­sing $100,000 fees for new H‑1B visa appli­ca­tions has par­ti­cu­lar­ly affec­ted the tech­no­lo­gy sec­tor, poten­tial­ly acce­le­ra­ting talent flows to com­pe­ting nations.

While much atten­tion focuses on major tech­no­lo­gy hubs, regio­nal inno­va­tion eco­sys­tems also play impor­tant roles in advan­cing space and Cri­ti­cal and Emer­ging tech­no­lo­gies. New Mexi­co pro­vides a use­ful example of how states can sup­port tech­no­lo­gy deve­lop­ment through infra­struc­ture invest­ment and research ins­ti­tu­tions. State-owned Spa­ce­port Ame­ri­ca offers rocket tes­ting faci­li­ties used by com­pa­nies inclu­ding Spa­ceX, pro­vi­ding access to spe­cia­li­sed infra­struc­ture that would require sub­stan­tial pri­vate invest­ment to repli­cate. At New Mexi­co Tech, resear­chers are applying bio­mi­mi­cry prin­ciples to deve­lop drone tech­no­lo­gies with appli­ca­tions ran­ging from pla­ne­ta­ry explo­ra­tion to wild­life moni­to­ring and avia­tion safety.

One pro­ject exa­mines how monarch but­ter­fly colo­ra­tion contri­butes to ener­gy conser­va­tion during their 3,000-mile migra­tion, with fin­dings that could inform avia­tion effi­cien­cy impro­ve­ments. Ano­ther ini­tia­tive is deve­lo­ping mil­li­gram-scale flying sen­sors ins­pi­red by dan­de­lion seeds for Mars explo­ra­tion. These sen­sors use pie­zoe­lec­tric mate­rials to har­vest solar and atmos­phe­ric ener­gy, enabling auto­no­mous ope­ra­tion in Mar­tian lava tubes without bat­te­ries. Addi­tio­nal research includes nature-friend­ly sur­veillance drones using pre­ser­ved taxi­der­my that blend with wild­life popu­la­tions, pro­vi­ding insights into bird flight phy­sics and flo­cking beha­viours appli­cable to com­mer­cial avia­tion. These fin­dings inform the deve­lop­ment of pre­da­tor bird drones desi­gned to reduce cost­ly bird strikes at air­ports. The New Mexi­co Bosque del Apache Natio­nal Wild­life Refuge pro­vides an ideal obser­va­to­ry for this research.

Beyond research out­put, New Mexi­co Tech is deve­lo­ping as a regio­nal drone tech­no­lo­gy hub through work­force deve­lop­ment ini­tia­tives. A K‑12 drone pro­gram enables high school stu­dents to desi­gn and build drones during sum­mer ses­sions, while approxi­ma­te­ly 40 gra­duate stu­dents from diverse dis­ci­plines have par­ti­ci­pa­ted in drone tech­no­lo­gy, bio­mi­mi­cry, and pla­ne­ta­ry explo­ra­tion research. 

Many of these stu­dents have been awar­ded pres­ti­gious prizes for their contri­bu­tions and these are fre­quent­ly cele­bra­ted on social media. These stu­dents bond ear­ly as a team and are visible pre­sen­ters at major confe­rences such as the 2025 AIAA Avia­tion and ASCEND Confe­rence, sha­ring their work on drones and aeros­pace sys­tems. Impor­tant local/regional com­mu­ni­ty outreach gene­ra­ting exci­te­ment about how NMT is revo­lu­tio­ni­sing drone tech­no­lo­gy is also achie­ved on an ongoing basis through a num­ber of public out­lets, inclu­ding media inter­views with e.g., New Mexi­co Fron­tiers Digi­tal Show KRQE.

A drone major is cur­rent­ly being desi­gned to connect com­mu­ni­ty col­leges across New Mexi­co to create a path­way for a future gene­ra­tion of stu­dents to acti­ve­ly contri­bute as part of the work­force desi­gned for the State’s aeros­pace indus­try. As part of the core faci­li­ties avai­lable there is also a net­ted drone cage where any types of drones can be tes­ted without having to wor­ry about brea­ching the FAA rules.

With gro­wing demand from govern­ments throu­ghout the world for more ‘bang for buck’ from their scien­ti­fic research invest­ments, stra­te­gic tar­ge­ting of CETs will like­ly inten­si­fy, with increa­sed expec­ta­tions for break­through results. Howe­ver, rea­li­sing the poten­tial of these tech­no­lo­gies requires addres­sing seve­ral inter­con­nec­ted chal­lenges. First, deve­lo­ping inter­dis­ci­pli­na­ry high-tech talent requires rethin­king edu­ca­tion and trai­ning approaches to fos­ter col­la­bo­ra­tion across tra­di­tio­nal dis­ci­pli­na­ry boun­da­ries. Second, attrac­ting invest­ment capi­tal that accepts high tech­ni­cal risk and exten­ded deve­lop­ment time­lines remains dif­fi­cult within conven­tio­nal fun­ding struc­tures. Third, secu­ring infra­struc­ture access depends on cross-sec­tor part­ner­ships bet­ween govern­ment, aca­de­mia, and indus­try ; rela­tion­ships that require sus­tai­ned com­mit­ment and ali­gn­ment of incentives.

The New Mexi­co Tech example illus­trates how these chal­lenges can be addres­sed through coor­di­na­ted approaches com­bi­ning research faci­li­ties, cross-sec­tor part­ner­ships, and mul­ti-level talent deve­lop­ment. By connec­ting scien­ti­fic achie­ve­ment with prac­ti­cal appli­ca­tions, such eco­sys­tems can inform public-pri­vate invest­ment deci­sions and acce­le­rate tech­no­lo­gy com­mer­cia­li­sa­tion. Suc­cess in the emer­ging space eco­no­my and rela­ted tech­no­lo­gy sec­tors will ulti­ma­te­ly depend on how effec­ti­ve­ly nations and regions address these fun­da­men­tal chal­lenges while fos­te­ring inno­va­tion across public and pri­vate domains. The conti­nued expan­sion of space acti­vi­ties, com­bi­ned with advances in Cri­ti­cal and Emer­ging tech­no­lo­gies, sug­gests that the coming decades will see signi­fi­cant deve­lop­ments in how huma­ni­ty accesses and uses space—developments that will be sha­ped as much by poli­cy choices and ins­ti­tu­tio­nal arran­ge­ments as by tech­no­lo­gi­cal capabilities.

Dr Has­sa­na­lian ack­now­ledges the sup­port of : the US NSF ; New Mexi­co Space Grant ; NASA ; Alpha Foun­da­tion ; NIOSH-CDC ; New Mexi­co CONSORTIUM ; and SciVista.